Stewart targets late‑August return — how one timeline could reshape…

If Breanna Stewart returns in late August as she expects, the Liberty’s offensive balance, defensive rating and title‑defense odds change materially — but timing and minutes management will determine impact.

Stewart spoke publicly Aug. 10 that she “feels great” after a right‑knee bone bruise and has been doing on‑court workouts, and coach Sandy Brondello has repeatedly described a late‑August target for a comeback. (Reuters and Associated Press coverage, Aug. 10, 2025.) The practical question for New York is not only “when” but “how” — whether she reenters at full minutes, in a managed role, or is held out longer to preserve playoff freshness.

What the team looked like without Stewart (key metrics)

• On/off court snapshot (through the stretch prior to Aug. 10): with Stewart on the floor New York’s offense rated roughly 109.6 points per 100 possessions versus about 107.2 with her off; defensive rating improved from about 100.3 off‑court to 98.5 on‑court. That produces an on‑court Net Rating near +11.1 versus +6.9 off the court — a swing of roughly +4.2 Net Rating in the Liberty’s favor when Stewart plays. (Basketball‑Reference team and player on/off data.)

• Pace and conversion: the Liberty run near 80 possessions per game. A +4.2 Net Rating at 80 possessions equates to roughly a 3.3‑point per‑game advantage when Stewart is on the floor versus when she’s not — a nontrivial swing across the regular season. (Basketball‑Reference team pace and on/off figures; methodology explained below.)

• Lineup effects: New York has generally preserved offensive efficiency without Stewart (the offense stays high), but certain lineup combinations lost defensive bite and interior finishing/board control. Lineups featuring Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu saw usage bumps and more perimeter looks; smaller rotations leaned on Marine Johannès and Natasha Cloud for creation. Basketball‑Reference lineup splits show the biggest declines in defensive rebound rate and rim protection when Stewart was absent.

Medical timeline and risk from a bone bruise

Bone bruises are different from ligament tears or fractures: they involve marrow edema and can be painful and slow to settle but do not always require surgery. Major sports‑medicine references (Cleveland Clinic; Northwestern Medicine) describe typical recovery windows of roughly 4–8 weeks for many bone bruises, with larger or deeper contusions taking longer. Important clinical milestones before return to full competition include pain‑free range of motion, resolved or controlled swelling, graded progression of weight‑bearing and sport‑specific loading, and successful full‑practice participation under contact conditions. (Cleveland Clinic; Northwestern Medicine.)

An on‑court workout — which Stewart has completed — is an encouraging but non‑definitive step: it shows range, shooting and controlled movement, but it is not the same as clearance for full scrimmage or game minutes. Teams watch for persistent focal bone pain, recurrent swelling after higher loads, and loss of explosiveness in cutting/jumping as red flags that argue for further rest or gradual ramping.

Scenarios: immediate return, limited minutes, or further delay

Below are three practical return scenarios and their likely effects on New York’s playoff projection and rotation.

1) Quick reintegration — managed minutes (probable/target scenario) - Role: 18–24 minutes per game initially; targeted minutes spikes in high‑leverage moments. - Short‑term impact: recaptures offensive spacing and post scoring while protecting Stewart’s workload; defensive improvements return gradually as conditioning and competitive contact increase. - Playoff/seed effect (inference): the ~+4.2 NetRtg on/off split implies a per‑game margin swing near +3.3 points (at 80 possessions). If that translates across the remaining regular season, a conservative conversion suggests a 3–6 game swing in the standings compared with remaining games without her. That margin would be enough to solidify a top‑2 seed and help avoid early matchups with a rested Aces or Lynx pairing. (Basketball‑Reference on/off figures; conversion is an analytical inference based on pace and Net Rating.) - Rotation: Brondello would likely preserve the minutes structure that earned the 2024 title, returning Stewart into a power‑forward/4 role near Jonquel Jones to keep Ionescu’s pick‑and‑roll traction intact; bench minutes for Isabelle Harrison and Nyara Sabally would ease.

2) Faster ramp, heavier minutes (high‑impact, higher‑risk) - Role: 25–30 minutes with early full usage. - Short‑term impact: immediate spike in NetRtg toward on‑court numbers; higher injury‑recurrence risk or fatigue late in games and down the stretch. - Playoff effect: if Stewart’s on‑court influence returns immediately, New York could reclaim the league’s best NetRtg baseline and be the favorite to repeat — but the marginal playoff benefit beyond securing top seed is smaller than the medical risk if load isn’t handled properly. - Rotation: would push bench players’ minutes down; the Liberty could tighten lineups late in games around their premier five.

3) Postpone return into playoffs (risk‑averse) - Role: absent through regular season, returns only once playoff series begin. - Short‑term impact: preserves Stewart physically but forces the team to rely on interim chemistry; seeding could slip and tougher early matchups become likelier. - Playoff effect: presence in playoffs could still be decisive, but losing regular‑season NetRtg cushion risks a lower seed and a potentially longer path.

What opponents will do: scouting and matchups to exploit a partial Stewart return

• Las Vegas Aces: would test interior mobility with pick‑and‑rolls and look to draw Stewart away from rim protection. If New York brings Stewart back in limited minutes, Las Vegas could concentrate scoring in minutes where she rests.
• Phoenix Mercury: would try to exploit perimeter mismatches if Stewart’s minutes are restricted, pushing the Liberty to guard more on the wings and attack rotations where rebounding becomes a concern.
• Minnesota Lynx: the Finals rematch opponent will aim to force turnovers and attack transition windows — periods Stewart’s absence historically widened.

Countermeasures for New York include staggered minutes for Stewie and Jones to avoid simultaneous dips in rebounding, keeping Ionescu’s pick‑and‑roll minutes high to preserve offensive continuity, and using targeted defensive coverages in minutes Stewart is on the bench.

Data sources and follow‑ups editors should track

Checklist for live tracking when Stewart inches toward clearance: - Team practice reports and full‑court scrimmage participation (team release/locker room notes). - Official medical clearance language — “cleared for full contact” vs. “on‑court workout.” (Reuters/AP reporting distinguishes the two.) - Minutes in any tune‑up appearances and boxscore on/off splits immediately after return (update Basketball‑Reference and WNBA.com on/off pages). - Rebound rates and opponent eFG% in the first 5–10 games after return to assess defensive integration.

Editors should maintain a short live tracker that pairs: date of last on‑court full practice, date of first live scrimmage, first game played and next five games’ Net Rating deltas.

Method note and closing inference

The offensive/defensive figures above come from Basketball‑Reference’s on/off and team pace data; medical timelines reference Cleveland Clinic and Northwestern Medicine guidance about knee bone bruises. Translating Net Rating swings into season wins requires assumptions about how on‑court per‑100 possession advantages scale across minutes and games — the 3–6 win range given above is an evidence‑anchored estimate, not a deterministic forecast.

If Stewart does come back in late August and the Liberty manage her minutes smartly, New York looks positioned to regain the margin that made them champions — but the precise playoff impact will depend on minutes load, immediate conditioning and how opponents adjust. And the next chapter? That’s still being written.